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Interesting.

I've noticed the spikiness of crits as well in my dice modeling. They can lay down some pretty heavy damage. However, these crits seem like they'll still often be dealing about x1.5 or so, barring additional dice and such. Overall damage should probably stay fairly similar. I can run some quick models. Assuming a longsword is the basic model, dealing 1d8+2 damage and hitting on a 11, average damage on 3e crits is 3.4125, while 4e gives 3.425. That's not noticeably different. However, by the time you hit 1d8+4 3e crits have pulled well ahead with 4.4625 vs 4.425. Okay, .0375 might not be 'well ahead', but it's something. ^_^ Heavier stuff like a good 2d6+6 greatsword is much more significant but still not generally noticeable, with 3e averaging 6.825 vs 4e's 6.75.

Craps, I just realized I was modeling a 20/x2 crit. Okay, so the new crit scheme is roughly equal to the smallest crit on average. Then again, 19-20/x2 is only barely better in average damage than 20/x2, so it's probably not a huge deal.

It's really not *too* bad, ket, but I can understand the argument against it. Simply instituting a rule about "If you need a 20 to hit you can't crit" like Cthon said will solve the problem well enough, I think.

A bonus of this system is that, because the stats are simpler, it's easier to modify. Going with a system like Amp was originally suggesting where you crit merely by rolling high enough over the monster's AC is a lot easier to balance out than it once was. A'koss, frex, did a system like that, but he had to essentially rewrite the weapons tables (he made a weapons construction system) to handle it in a balanced way. Since everyone crits on the same numbers here, you can easily transition to a system where everyone crits on the same value above the enemy's AC. This also automatically solves the problem of people critting every time they hit without a special rule like the one I outlined above.

Fwiw, A'koss's crit system used exploding attack rolls (roll a 20 and you roll again, adding the result), and you gained a multiplier for every 10 points you rolled over the enemy's AC. So 10 over was x2, 20 over was x3, and so on. No auto-hits or auto-misses at all (rolling a 1 also exploded downwards (which I suppose is more of an implosion) so you never had high-level people guaranteed to hit, they were just a lot more likely to hit, and probably crit).

I enjoy systems like this because they naturally model level differences as being extra-deadly. However, if 4e goes with the Saga-style "everyone gets level/2 bonus damage at all times" thing, that'll model the same thing fairly well also.